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Statistical conclusions

In Betting preview, Soccerball, Top Tips on February 24, 2012 at 21:07

Exciting title, or wha?

Chelsea v Bolton (Saturday 3pm)
Out of 18 home games in all comps this season, Chelsea have won with a clean sheet in six of them – that’s a strike rate of 66%. In their last three meetings with Bolton at Stamford Bridge, Bolton have failed to score. Chelsea will not have a better chance of getting back to winning ways than this Saturday.

Chelsea to win with a clean sheet YES EVS.

Newcastle v Wolves (Saturday 3pm)

Wolves have gone 22 league games since their last clean sheet. Newcastle havent exactly been fluid in scoring in their home games, averaging about 1.5 goals per home game with Demba Ba scoring around 44% of their goals. Looks like a low-scoring game but if the Magpies were to score, Demba Ba would be the man to score it.

SCORECAST Newcatle to win 1-0 and Demba Ba to score 18/1.

QPR v Fulham

QPR’s home record is fairly dreadful – just two wins in 12.
Couple that with Fulham’s apparent travel sickness – one win in 12 – and you have a London derby for the purists.
Mark Hughes hasn’t quite got his new squad firing on all cylinders yet but they do have a decent strike force available with the likes of Djibril Cisse, Federico Macheda and Bobby Zamora in their ranks.
There has been an average of three goals scored in total in QPR’s last three home games and Fulham’s last three away goals.

TOTAL GOALS U/O 2.5 Over EVS.

West Brom v Sunderland

West Brom are on a cold run of form, having lost six of their last eight home league games, while Sunderland are on a roll under the guidance of Martin O’Neill, winning four of their last six games on the road.
In those six games, the Black Cats have averaged two goals per game, while WBA’s last three home games have all finished 2-1 to the away side.

CORRECT SCORE Sunderland to win 2-1 9/1.

Wigan v Aston Villa
Gabriel Agbonlahor likes the JJB – the striker has scored on three of his last four visits to the ground. The 25-year-old has netted in 25% of his appearances for Villa this season – he’s due a goal because he hasn’t scored on his last three outings.

FIRST GOALSCORER Gabriel Agbonlahor 15/2.

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur

10 out of 21 arsenal home games have seen Gunners score mor than one goal, so more than half the time, Arsenal score one or less goals, while almost half of Spurs away games have seen the London side score one or less goals. The historical data indicates that there have been three goals or more in 14 of the last 16 North London derbies. Buck the trend and respect current form.

TOAL GOALS U/O 2.5 Under EVS.

CARLING CUP FINAL
Liverpool v Cardiff (Sunday 4pm)

Liverpool have scored 25 goals in their nine cup games this season, but surprisingly have only kept clean sheets against Chelsea and Manchester City in those nine cup ties. That means Liverpool have leaked goals against lower league opposition like Brighton (twice), Oldham and Exeter. Expect Cardiff to have their moment in the sun on Sunday afternoon.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Yes 11/10.

Paraguay v Japan World Cup

In Betting preview, Soccerball on June 29, 2010 at 10:42

This second round match is not the game we expected at the start of the tournament. It should be Italy against Denmark. Unfortunately, both Italy and Denmark were shit. Paraguay and Japan are not.

So bring on the soccer.

Japan are fit, eager, skillful, but lack a bit of tactical nous. Paraguay have the skill and the tactical brains, but as with most South American teams, their mental attitude could be flaky and shaky.

I think Japan will do better than the bookmakers believe. While the 3/1 about them winning inside 90 minutes is tempting, I still reckon Paraguay may be a little too strong for the Asians.

Bearing that in mind, I figured that Japan would lose by one goal but the odds on that are a bit skinny for me. So i am plumping for there to be three goals or more in this game at odds of around 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair.

RECOMMENDED

Paraguay v Japan

2pts – Over 2.5 goals   (2.66)

Soccer picks for February 6th, 2010

In Betting preview, Soccerball on February 6, 2010 at 10:45

Here’s a few brief tips I’ve come up with by scouring the Saturday morning papers.

Liverpool v Everton — HOME — 5/6

Tottenham v Aston Villa — HOME — 23/20

Nottm Forest v Sheffield Wed — HOME — 8/13

Swindon v Charlton — HOME — 6/4

Wycombe W v Yeovil — HOME — 13/10

Hereford v Torquay — HOME — 13/10

Rochdale v Crewe — HOME — 4/6

East Fife v Dumbarton — AWAY — 7/4

East Stirling v Berwick — AWAY — 11/4 (great value)

For more tips, and in-depth previews on the Liverpool/Everton and Spurs/Villa games, go to www.sportsnewsireland.com . (Also preview of Sunday’s Chelsea/Arsenal game.

Aston Villa v Arsenal match & betting preview

In Betting preview, Soccerball on January 27, 2010 at 10:34

ASTON VILLA v ARSENAL

Premier League

Wednesday, January 27th.

Villa Park. Kick off 19.45

What a massive couple of weeks this is for Arsenal. The Gunners have five enormous, season-shaping games approaching. After this Villa clash, they entertain Manchester United, followed by a trip to Chelsea before hosting Liverpool. Then, they’ve to travel to Porto in the Second Round of the Champions League. This is definitely a season-defining period for the Gunners. Villa have been enjoying a terrific season so far. They beat Blackburn 7-4 on aggregate to reach the final of the League Cup and are currently just two points away from fourth place in the Premier League. They’re also into the Fifth Round of the FA Cup with an impending and winnable tie against either Wolves or Crystal Palace coming up in just over two weeks time.

However, their cup exploits have detracted from their league form. In their last league match they had a scoreless draw with West Ham. Before that they lost two on the trot to Liverpool and Arsenal (on December 27th). Nevertheless, the did win their four Premier League games prior to that Arsenal defeat.

In contrast, Arsenal haven’t had the distractions of a League Cup run which has been to their advantage. They haven’t lost a league game since the Chelsea defeat in late November and reached the summit of the table last week despite all the pre-season knocking before Manchester United reclaimed top spot on Saturday. Sunday’s FA Cup exit for the Gunners can only enhance their Premier League aspirations, beginning with this tricky tie away to Villa.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Aston Villa haven’t beaten Arsenal at Villa Park since 1998. Dennis Bergkamp put Arsenal 2-0 up before half-time that December day before Julian Joachim got one back. Dion Dublin then banged in two more to give Villa a 3-2 victory. Since then, Villa Park has been a happy hunting ground for the Gunners, winning five and drawing five. However, this is an improved Villa side on previous years.

TEAM NEWS

Villa have niggling doubts surrounding the participation of Emile Heskey, Richard Dunne, Nigel Reo-Coker, John Carew and Wilfred Bouma in this game. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s injury list keeps getting longer. Djourou, Van Persie, Gibbs, Diaby, Merida and Nasri will all miss this match. However, Sagna, Wilshere and Bendtner may have made sufficient recoveries to be considered for selection.

VERDICT

Their home form has been pretty solid this term, only losing to Liverpool and Wigan (on the opening day of the season). The Gunners’ away form has been slightly inconsistent, and with the injuries they have to contend with, perhaps a draw would suit Arsenal, especially with the fixtures they have approaching.

RECOMMENDED

MATCH ODDS Draw 3.5 (BETFAIR)

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS Under 2.5 goals 1.95 (BETFAIR)

***Please bet responsibly. Only bet with money that you can afford to lose — not your food kitty or rent/mortgage***

WOLVES v ARSENAL betting preview

In Betting preview, Soccerball, Top Tips on November 6, 2009 at 16:52

WOLVES v ARSENAL

Premier League, Saturday November 7th

Molineux. Kickoff 17.30

 

Arsenal are really proving all their pre-season doubters wrong. They’re scored freely while playing that exciting passing game that Wenger has drilled into the squad. Arsenal have been, for quite some time now, the best team to watch in the Premier League by a long way. Their football is exciting, fluent, and skilful – the way football should be played.

However, after selling Adebayor and Toure in the summer, not many pundits were giving the Gunners a chance of finishing in the top four, let alone win the championship.

How wrong they all were.

Arsenal are playing their best football for quite some time, and now the results are being strung together and the Gunners are shaping up into proper title contenders.

They have lost two games this season in the league, but Arsenal should have beaten Manchester United, and were just caught on a freak day by Manchester City.

Wenger steadied the ship immediately and their Premier League performances, coupled with their excellent Champions League form has turned Arsenal’s season around 360 degrees.

Arsenal come into this tie with Wolves on the back of a whopping 4-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar. Confidence is as high as ever and with no fresh injury worries for Wenger to contend with, Arsenal have the class and will to brush aside a plucky Wolves.

Wolves appear to be at the other end of the spectrum to Arsenal. Although they are unbeaten in their three previous games (all draws), Wolves have not won since September 20th when they beat Fulham 2-1 at Molineux.

However, their last three games are not that bad. They were beating Everton at Goodison Park until Bilyaletdinov scored a late equaliser in the 88th minute. The following weekend they met Aston Villa at Molineux and equalised with a late penalty. Still, that’s a decent result against a good Villa team, and a hard-fought local derby to boot. Last weekend, Wolves showed great guts and determination to come back from 2-0 to draw with Stoke.

Perhaps Wolves are beginning to turn their season around. Mick McCarthy, though probably not suited to international management, is a good motivator and a fine manager. He has already confirmed that Sylvan Ebanks-Blake will start this game against Arsenal while striker Chris Iwelumo has suffered a recurrence of a metatarsal injury.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Arsenal haven’t lost to Wolves in their last 13 meetings. Wolves last beat Arsenal at Highbury in 1979! In the most recent seasons, the two sides have met four times, with Arsenal winning every encounter with an aggregate score of 13-2. Their last game at Molineux was in 2004 and resulted in a 3-1 win for the Gunners. History does not look to be on Wolves’ side.

VERDICT

At first glance, everything points to an Arsenal win. At second glance, and after looking at recent form, everything still points to an Arsenal win. Wolves will be confidant of putting up a good display and there is little doubt that McCarthy will be viewing this as a vital game to get a decent result for the club. However, Arsenal’s form far outweighs anything that Wolves have ever done and the Gunners should take all three points at a canter.

RECOMMENDED

HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME  Draw/Arsenal    4.90 BETFAIR

***Please bet responsibly. Only bet with money that you can afford to lose — not your food kitty or rent/mortgage***

Arsenal v AZ Alkmaar BETTING PREVIEW

In Betting preview, Soccerball, Top Tips on November 4, 2009 at 14:18

ARSENAL v AZ ALKMAAR

Champions League Group H

The Emirates. Wednesday, November 4th.

Kickoff 19.45.

After Arsenal trounced Spurs on Saturday , the visit of Alkmaar cannot be too worrying for Wenger and his band of merry men.

The clean sheet from the Spurs game will please Wenger, as will the manner in which Arsenal scored their three goals, even if Spurs’ defence was slightly dodgy at times.

Fabregas deserves all the plaudits he gets for his goal and will be a vital cog in Wenger’s wheel against Alkmaar, if he plays. The fact that the Gunners are cruising towards qualification might mean that Wenger gives his star player a well-earned rest – he can afford to do so.

Arsenal are hot favourites to win this tie and deservedly so. Their home form is terrific, and Alkmaar’s away form is poor, particularly in England.

TEAM NEWS

Gael Clichy will be out for about a month after suffering a stress fracture in his back. This paves the way for young Kieran Gibbs to enjoy an extended run in the side. Rosicky is back in the squad but long-term injuries keep Bendtner, Fabianski, Walcott  and Denilson on the sidelines.

VERDICT

This game is expected to be all one-way traffic. Arsenal’s price of about 1.20 reflects this. Unless you’re investing very large sums of money (and if you are, you shouldn’t really be reading this), you won’t be punting on Arsenal to win. Even the Arsenal winning at half-time and full-time (around 1.80) doesn’t ooze inspiration. Perhaps the value is to found in the number of goals to be scored. Arsenal are no strangers to hitting the back of the net, and Alkmaar are no strangers to picking it out of the back of their own net. In fact, if Arsenal were to lose concentration for a minute, Alkmaar may end up scoring a goal of their own.

RECOMMENDED

Over 3.5 goals    2.36 BETFAIR

Arsenal -2.5 goals             2.48 BETFAIR

Arshavin to score at anytime      2.38 BETFAIR

Fabregas to score at anytime      3.40 BETFAIR

 

***Please bet responsibly. Only bet with money that you can afford to lose — not your food kitty or rent/mortgage***

Arsenal v Spurs betting preview

In Betting preview, Top Tips on October 31, 2009 at 11:31

ARSENAL v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Premier League, Saturday, October 31st

The Emirates, kickoff 12.45pm

 

For a massive psychological boost, Arsenal really need to put one over Spurs in the Saturday lunchtime match. Chelsea don’t play until 3pm, and Manchester Utd aren’t taking the field until the evening, so for a few hours at least, Arsenal could see themselves slide into second place in the Premier League.

That’s not bad for a team who were written off by every pundit known to man before the season began.

It’s no secret that Arsenal are playing scintillating football this season and are scoring goals with considerable ease. However, they are leaking goals and have kept just five clean sheets in all competitions this season.

On the other hand, Spurs desperately need a win too.  A win over the Gunners would put them level on points with United and within shouting distance of top spot – a massive confidence booster to all at White Hart Lane.

Spurs showed great character in bouncing back in style from their home defeat against Stoke last weekend by pushing aside Everton mid-week in the League Cup. There is little doubt that Harry Redknapp has his squad in the best possible condition both physically and mentally. One worrying aspect of their play is their tendency to leak goals. To have conceded 14 goals in 10 league games is not title winning defending but it is their ability to regularly score at the other end of the pitch that has Spurs in their best position for many a year.

Roy Keane, Jermaine Defoe and Jermaine Jenas have been in prolific form while Aaron Lennon is surely playing the best football of his career. However, disappointingly for Redknapp, Defoe (suspended) and Lennon (ankle) will miss out on this big game. Peter Crouch is available for this game but other Spurs’ absentees are Cudicin, Woodgate, dos Santos, Modric and Ledley King.

For the Gunners, Almunia is available to play, as is Nasri, though he is likely to start on the bench. Fabianski, Rosicky and Walcott will all miss out through injury.

It will be intriguing to find out how both teams will cope with each other’s attacking qualities.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

There have been six meetings between Arsenal and Spurs in the last two seasons. A draw has been the most common result occurring three times, including a 4-4 thriller at The Emirates almost exactly a year ago to the day. The Gunners have won twice, while Spurs have beaten their big rivals just the once. However, Spurs record against Arsenal has been improving over the past few years and with the Spurs squad in as good a shape as it is, another good result could be on the cards.

 

VERDICT

Defoe’s suspension and Lennon’s injury will make this already tough game for Spurs even tougher. However, in Peter Crouch they have a very effective replacement for Defoe. He will cause aeriel problems for Arsenal and it will be interesting to see how the Arsenal back-line cope with him.

With both defences liable to leak goals, and both strike forces liable to grab goals, expect the ball to hit the back of the net more than once in this encounter.

If you search, you could find 1.80 available for both teams to score during the match which is surely a guaranteed outcome.

Arsenal will not walk through this game by any means, but it is very difficult to find value in this match without getting too worked up in the obscure bets. The bookmakers seem to have got their sums right. With home advantage, Arsenal are worthy favourites and should overcome a tough battle against a lively Spurs outfit. To turn a profit in this game, back a home win, and all variations of it.

 

RECOMMENDED

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE                1.80 (available)

ARSENAL TO WIN             1.59 BETFAIR

HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME  Arsenal 2.58 BETFAIR

 

***Please bet responsibly. Only bet with money that you can afford to lose — not your food kitty or rent/mortgage***