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Posts Tagged ‘bet’

Statistical conclusions

In Betting preview, Soccerball, Top Tips on February 24, 2012 at 21:07

Exciting title, or wha?

Chelsea v Bolton (Saturday 3pm)
Out of 18 home games in all comps this season, Chelsea have won with a clean sheet in six of them – that’s a strike rate of 66%. In their last three meetings with Bolton at Stamford Bridge, Bolton have failed to score. Chelsea will not have a better chance of getting back to winning ways than this Saturday.

Chelsea to win with a clean sheet YES EVS.

Newcastle v Wolves (Saturday 3pm)

Wolves have gone 22 league games since their last clean sheet. Newcastle havent exactly been fluid in scoring in their home games, averaging about 1.5 goals per home game with Demba Ba scoring around 44% of their goals. Looks like a low-scoring game but if the Magpies were to score, Demba Ba would be the man to score it.

SCORECAST Newcatle to win 1-0 and Demba Ba to score 18/1.

QPR v Fulham

QPR’s home record is fairly dreadful – just two wins in 12.
Couple that with Fulham’s apparent travel sickness – one win in 12 – and you have a London derby for the purists.
Mark Hughes hasn’t quite got his new squad firing on all cylinders yet but they do have a decent strike force available with the likes of Djibril Cisse, Federico Macheda and Bobby Zamora in their ranks.
There has been an average of three goals scored in total in QPR’s last three home games and Fulham’s last three away goals.

TOTAL GOALS U/O 2.5 Over EVS.

West Brom v Sunderland

West Brom are on a cold run of form, having lost six of their last eight home league games, while Sunderland are on a roll under the guidance of Martin O’Neill, winning four of their last six games on the road.
In those six games, the Black Cats have averaged two goals per game, while WBA’s last three home games have all finished 2-1 to the away side.

CORRECT SCORE Sunderland to win 2-1 9/1.

Wigan v Aston Villa
Gabriel Agbonlahor likes the JJB – the striker has scored on three of his last four visits to the ground. The 25-year-old has netted in 25% of his appearances for Villa this season – he’s due a goal because he hasn’t scored on his last three outings.

FIRST GOALSCORER Gabriel Agbonlahor 15/2.

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur

10 out of 21 arsenal home games have seen Gunners score mor than one goal, so more than half the time, Arsenal score one or less goals, while almost half of Spurs away games have seen the London side score one or less goals. The historical data indicates that there have been three goals or more in 14 of the last 16 North London derbies. Buck the trend and respect current form.

TOAL GOALS U/O 2.5 Under EVS.

CARLING CUP FINAL
Liverpool v Cardiff (Sunday 4pm)

Liverpool have scored 25 goals in their nine cup games this season, but surprisingly have only kept clean sheets against Chelsea and Manchester City in those nine cup ties. That means Liverpool have leaked goals against lower league opposition like Brighton (twice), Oldham and Exeter. Expect Cardiff to have their moment in the sun on Sunday afternoon.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Yes 11/10.

Paraguay v Japan World Cup

In Betting preview, Soccerball on June 29, 2010 at 10:42

This second round match is not the game we expected at the start of the tournament. It should be Italy against Denmark. Unfortunately, both Italy and Denmark were shit. Paraguay and Japan are not.

So bring on the soccer.

Japan are fit, eager, skillful, but lack a bit of tactical nous. Paraguay have the skill and the tactical brains, but as with most South American teams, their mental attitude could be flaky and shaky.

I think Japan will do better than the bookmakers believe. While the 3/1 about them winning inside 90 minutes is tempting, I still reckon Paraguay may be a little too strong for the Asians.

Bearing that in mind, I figured that Japan would lose by one goal but the odds on that are a bit skinny for me. So i am plumping for there to be three goals or more in this game at odds of around 2.66 (13/8) on Betfair.

RECOMMENDED

Paraguay v Japan

2pts – Over 2.5 goals   (2.66)

Soccer picks for February 6th, 2010

In Betting preview, Soccerball on February 6, 2010 at 10:45

Here’s a few brief tips I’ve come up with by scouring the Saturday morning papers.

Liverpool v Everton — HOME — 5/6

Tottenham v Aston Villa — HOME — 23/20

Nottm Forest v Sheffield Wed — HOME — 8/13

Swindon v Charlton — HOME — 6/4

Wycombe W v Yeovil — HOME — 13/10

Hereford v Torquay — HOME — 13/10

Rochdale v Crewe — HOME — 4/6

East Fife v Dumbarton — AWAY — 7/4

East Stirling v Berwick — AWAY — 11/4 (great value)

For more tips, and in-depth previews on the Liverpool/Everton and Spurs/Villa games, go to www.sportsnewsireland.com . (Also preview of Sunday’s Chelsea/Arsenal game.

Top Tips 3 – Cheltenham Friday 2009

In Top Tips on March 13, 2009 at 12:23

Today is Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. It should be a terrific day’s racing.

I’m a traditionalist. I like Kauto Star and can’t see past him in the feature race of the day.  There will be challengers to his crown but Kauto has the class, talent and the jockey (Ruby Walsh) to regain his Gold Cup crown. At the time of writing, you can easily get 15/8.

Overall it is a competitive day of racing. The opening race is the JCB Triumph Hurdle and any number of the runners could win it.

The form points to Walkon winning this one but I have a sneaking feeling that Silk Drum could run a huge race at a huge price. He has good form behind him and has been consistently improving over his past couple of runs. And the key is that he stays beyond the two miles he’ll face here, a vital compenent needed to get up the Cheltenham hill. If you’re quick, you may get 50/1 about him winning.

In the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, I’m going to plump for Hangover. He won on soft ground at Gowran Park last month over this trip and also won on similar ground over two miles and five furlongs at Limerick at Christmas.  Additionally, he has as super jockey on board in Paul Townend. You can easily get 12/1 on Conor O’Dwyer’s charge winning this one.

In the Premier League over the weekend, there are no stand out bets at all, though there is a stand out match. Manchester United take on Liverpool in a game Liverpool must win to have any chance of winning the title. It’ll probably end up a draw.

If I simply had to have a bet in this weekend’s fixtures, I’d side with a Bolton/Fulham draw. Bolton are rubbish at home and Fulham are rubbish way having drawn half of their matches. In fact, because they’ve only scored three goals away, why not lump on a No Goalscorer in this one?

 

Any thoughts anyone?

Top Tips 2 – Cheltenham Thursday 2009

In Top Tips on March 12, 2009 at 11:42

Today’s racing at Cheltenham will be terrific with Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss almost certain to win their respective races.
I’m also hearing work leak through about Green Mile in the Pertemps Final. Ruby Walsh is riding him so he’ll give the horse every chance. He is available at around 8/1.
In the Freddie Williams Festival Plate, I read with interest in the Racing Post that they have napped Notable D’Estruval, a horse i like very much. He is available at around 12/1. He won at Punchestown last year over two and a half miles and if he can reporoduce that kind of run, he’ll have a super chance of winning some place money.

 

Recommended:

Lucky 15 with Voy Por Ustedes (1/1), Kasbah Bliss (5/4), Green Mile (8/1) and Notable D’Estruval (12/1). A €1 Lucky 15 will return €1,364 if all win.

Top tips – Cheltenham Wednesday

In Top Tips on March 11, 2009 at 10:22

Right. cheltenham is capturing the hearts and pockets of punters nationwide this week but there aren’t too many nice bets today.

Yesterday was much better. I backed Celestial Halo, L’Ami and Quevega as part of a Lucky 15 each-way. However, I’ll only be collecting a small amount.

Today, I won’t be having a bet…..but if i was, this is what I would do.

I’d do a Lucky 15 combining tonight’s football and today’s racing at Cheltenham.

Firstly, Mikael D’Hagenuet. Needs soft ground and has four times in Ireland for Willie Mullins on that type of ground. He could have done with more rain at Cheltenham but this is a horse I like a lot and he could be winning the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at around 4/1 today.

Secondly, Master Minded. An absolute machine who will win easy bar a disaster. However, at odds of around 1/3 he is best included in a Lucky 15.

Now, on to the football.

After Liverpool’s brilliant win in the Champion’s League last night, and Chelsea’s win, English football is on a high. This will continue tonight. I can’t see either Arsenal or Manchester United not getting through. However, because I’m a Liverpool fan, I cannot back Man Utd. Therefore, I’m concentrating on Arsenal’s match with Roma.

Arsenal hold a 1-0 lead from the first leg, and I don’t see them crumbling tonight. Roma have a fair home record this season but I don’t see them breaking through what will be a very organised Arsenal team. I’m plumping for a draw in that one at odds of around 9/4.

Now, back to the Premier League. Fulham play Blackburn at Craven Cottage. Fulham’s form has dipped lately but their home record is fairly solid. Blackburn on the other hand, have been very hit and miss all season and currently lie in the relegation zone. Furthermore, their away form is terrible having only won three out of 13 games on their travels this season. I’m fancying Fulham at odds of slightly over 5/4.

 

A Lucky 15 at the odds quoted costs €15 and will return a lovely €192.38 if they all win. 

Oh sit down!