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Posts Tagged ‘Champions League’

Statistical conclusions

In Betting preview, Soccerball, Top Tips on February 24, 2012 at 21:07

Exciting title, or wha?

Chelsea v Bolton (Saturday 3pm)
Out of 18 home games in all comps this season, Chelsea have won with a clean sheet in six of them – that’s a strike rate of 66%. In their last three meetings with Bolton at Stamford Bridge, Bolton have failed to score. Chelsea will not have a better chance of getting back to winning ways than this Saturday.

Chelsea to win with a clean sheet YES EVS.

Newcastle v Wolves (Saturday 3pm)

Wolves have gone 22 league games since their last clean sheet. Newcastle havent exactly been fluid in scoring in their home games, averaging about 1.5 goals per home game with Demba Ba scoring around 44% of their goals. Looks like a low-scoring game but if the Magpies were to score, Demba Ba would be the man to score it.

SCORECAST Newcatle to win 1-0 and Demba Ba to score 18/1.

QPR v Fulham

QPR’s home record is fairly dreadful – just two wins in 12.
Couple that with Fulham’s apparent travel sickness – one win in 12 – and you have a London derby for the purists.
Mark Hughes hasn’t quite got his new squad firing on all cylinders yet but they do have a decent strike force available with the likes of Djibril Cisse, Federico Macheda and Bobby Zamora in their ranks.
There has been an average of three goals scored in total in QPR’s last three home games and Fulham’s last three away goals.

TOTAL GOALS U/O 2.5 Over EVS.

West Brom v Sunderland

West Brom are on a cold run of form, having lost six of their last eight home league games, while Sunderland are on a roll under the guidance of Martin O’Neill, winning four of their last six games on the road.
In those six games, the Black Cats have averaged two goals per game, while WBA’s last three home games have all finished 2-1 to the away side.

CORRECT SCORE Sunderland to win 2-1 9/1.

Wigan v Aston Villa
Gabriel Agbonlahor likes the JJB – the striker has scored on three of his last four visits to the ground. The 25-year-old has netted in 25% of his appearances for Villa this season – he’s due a goal because he hasn’t scored on his last three outings.

FIRST GOALSCORER Gabriel Agbonlahor 15/2.

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur

10 out of 21 arsenal home games have seen Gunners score mor than one goal, so more than half the time, Arsenal score one or less goals, while almost half of Spurs away games have seen the London side score one or less goals. The historical data indicates that there have been three goals or more in 14 of the last 16 North London derbies. Buck the trend and respect current form.

TOAL GOALS U/O 2.5 Under EVS.

CARLING CUP FINAL
Liverpool v Cardiff (Sunday 4pm)

Liverpool have scored 25 goals in their nine cup games this season, but surprisingly have only kept clean sheets against Chelsea and Manchester City in those nine cup ties. That means Liverpool have leaked goals against lower league opposition like Brighton (twice), Oldham and Exeter. Expect Cardiff to have their moment in the sun on Sunday afternoon.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Yes 11/10.

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Arsenal v AZ Alkmaar BETTING PREVIEW

In Betting preview, Soccerball, Top Tips on November 4, 2009 at 14:18

ARSENAL v AZ ALKMAAR

Champions League Group H

The Emirates. Wednesday, November 4th.

Kickoff 19.45.

After Arsenal trounced Spurs on Saturday , the visit of Alkmaar cannot be too worrying for Wenger and his band of merry men.

The clean sheet from the Spurs game will please Wenger, as will the manner in which Arsenal scored their three goals, even if Spurs’ defence was slightly dodgy at times.

Fabregas deserves all the plaudits he gets for his goal and will be a vital cog in Wenger’s wheel against Alkmaar, if he plays. The fact that the Gunners are cruising towards qualification might mean that Wenger gives his star player a well-earned rest – he can afford to do so.

Arsenal are hot favourites to win this tie and deservedly so. Their home form is terrific, and Alkmaar’s away form is poor, particularly in England.

TEAM NEWS

Gael Clichy will be out for about a month after suffering a stress fracture in his back. This paves the way for young Kieran Gibbs to enjoy an extended run in the side. Rosicky is back in the squad but long-term injuries keep Bendtner, Fabianski, Walcott  and Denilson on the sidelines.

VERDICT

This game is expected to be all one-way traffic. Arsenal’s price of about 1.20 reflects this. Unless you’re investing very large sums of money (and if you are, you shouldn’t really be reading this), you won’t be punting on Arsenal to win. Even the Arsenal winning at half-time and full-time (around 1.80) doesn’t ooze inspiration. Perhaps the value is to found in the number of goals to be scored. Arsenal are no strangers to hitting the back of the net, and Alkmaar are no strangers to picking it out of the back of their own net. In fact, if Arsenal were to lose concentration for a minute, Alkmaar may end up scoring a goal of their own.

RECOMMENDED

Over 3.5 goals    2.36 BETFAIR

Arsenal -2.5 goals             2.48 BETFAIR

Arshavin to score at anytime      2.38 BETFAIR

Fabregas to score at anytime      3.40 BETFAIR

 

***Please bet responsibly. Only bet with money that you can afford to lose — not your food kitty or rent/mortgage***

Top tips – Cheltenham Wednesday

In Top Tips on March 11, 2009 at 10:22

Right. cheltenham is capturing the hearts and pockets of punters nationwide this week but there aren’t too many nice bets today.

Yesterday was much better. I backed Celestial Halo, L’Ami and Quevega as part of a Lucky 15 each-way. However, I’ll only be collecting a small amount.

Today, I won’t be having a bet…..but if i was, this is what I would do.

I’d do a Lucky 15 combining tonight’s football and today’s racing at Cheltenham.

Firstly, Mikael D’Hagenuet. Needs soft ground and has four times in Ireland for Willie Mullins on that type of ground. He could have done with more rain at Cheltenham but this is a horse I like a lot and he could be winning the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at around 4/1 today.

Secondly, Master Minded. An absolute machine who will win easy bar a disaster. However, at odds of around 1/3 he is best included in a Lucky 15.

Now, on to the football.

After Liverpool’s brilliant win in the Champion’s League last night, and Chelsea’s win, English football is on a high. This will continue tonight. I can’t see either Arsenal or Manchester United not getting through. However, because I’m a Liverpool fan, I cannot back Man Utd. Therefore, I’m concentrating on Arsenal’s match with Roma.

Arsenal hold a 1-0 lead from the first leg, and I don’t see them crumbling tonight. Roma have a fair home record this season but I don’t see them breaking through what will be a very organised Arsenal team. I’m plumping for a draw in that one at odds of around 9/4.

Now, back to the Premier League. Fulham play Blackburn at Craven Cottage. Fulham’s form has dipped lately but their home record is fairly solid. Blackburn on the other hand, have been very hit and miss all season and currently lie in the relegation zone. Furthermore, their away form is terrible having only won three out of 13 games on their travels this season. I’m fancying Fulham at odds of slightly over 5/4.

 

A Lucky 15 at the odds quoted costs €15 and will return a lovely €192.38 if they all win. 

Oh sit down!