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Posts Tagged ‘Spurs’

Statistical conclusions

In Betting preview, Soccerball, Top Tips on February 24, 2012 at 21:07

Exciting title, or wha?

Chelsea v Bolton (Saturday 3pm)
Out of 18 home games in all comps this season, Chelsea have won with a clean sheet in six of them – that’s a strike rate of 66%. In their last three meetings with Bolton at Stamford Bridge, Bolton have failed to score. Chelsea will not have a better chance of getting back to winning ways than this Saturday.

Chelsea to win with a clean sheet YES EVS.

Newcastle v Wolves (Saturday 3pm)

Wolves have gone 22 league games since their last clean sheet. Newcastle havent exactly been fluid in scoring in their home games, averaging about 1.5 goals per home game with Demba Ba scoring around 44% of their goals. Looks like a low-scoring game but if the Magpies were to score, Demba Ba would be the man to score it.

SCORECAST Newcatle to win 1-0 and Demba Ba to score 18/1.

QPR v Fulham

QPR’s home record is fairly dreadful – just two wins in 12.
Couple that with Fulham’s apparent travel sickness – one win in 12 – and you have a London derby for the purists.
Mark Hughes hasn’t quite got his new squad firing on all cylinders yet but they do have a decent strike force available with the likes of Djibril Cisse, Federico Macheda and Bobby Zamora in their ranks.
There has been an average of three goals scored in total in QPR’s last three home games and Fulham’s last three away goals.

TOTAL GOALS U/O 2.5 Over EVS.

West Brom v Sunderland

West Brom are on a cold run of form, having lost six of their last eight home league games, while Sunderland are on a roll under the guidance of Martin O’Neill, winning four of their last six games on the road.
In those six games, the Black Cats have averaged two goals per game, while WBA’s last three home games have all finished 2-1 to the away side.

CORRECT SCORE Sunderland to win 2-1 9/1.

Wigan v Aston Villa
Gabriel Agbonlahor likes the JJB – the striker has scored on three of his last four visits to the ground. The 25-year-old has netted in 25% of his appearances for Villa this season – he’s due a goal because he hasn’t scored on his last three outings.

FIRST GOALSCORER Gabriel Agbonlahor 15/2.

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur

10 out of 21 arsenal home games have seen Gunners score mor than one goal, so more than half the time, Arsenal score one or less goals, while almost half of Spurs away games have seen the London side score one or less goals. The historical data indicates that there have been three goals or more in 14 of the last 16 North London derbies. Buck the trend and respect current form.

TOAL GOALS U/O 2.5 Under EVS.

CARLING CUP FINAL
Liverpool v Cardiff (Sunday 4pm)

Liverpool have scored 25 goals in their nine cup games this season, but surprisingly have only kept clean sheets against Chelsea and Manchester City in those nine cup ties. That means Liverpool have leaked goals against lower league opposition like Brighton (twice), Oldham and Exeter. Expect Cardiff to have their moment in the sun on Sunday afternoon.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Yes 11/10.

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Arsenal v Spurs betting preview

In Betting preview, Top Tips on October 31, 2009 at 11:31

ARSENAL v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Premier League, Saturday, October 31st

The Emirates, kickoff 12.45pm

 

For a massive psychological boost, Arsenal really need to put one over Spurs in the Saturday lunchtime match. Chelsea don’t play until 3pm, and Manchester Utd aren’t taking the field until the evening, so for a few hours at least, Arsenal could see themselves slide into second place in the Premier League.

That’s not bad for a team who were written off by every pundit known to man before the season began.

It’s no secret that Arsenal are playing scintillating football this season and are scoring goals with considerable ease. However, they are leaking goals and have kept just five clean sheets in all competitions this season.

On the other hand, Spurs desperately need a win too.  A win over the Gunners would put them level on points with United and within shouting distance of top spot – a massive confidence booster to all at White Hart Lane.

Spurs showed great character in bouncing back in style from their home defeat against Stoke last weekend by pushing aside Everton mid-week in the League Cup. There is little doubt that Harry Redknapp has his squad in the best possible condition both physically and mentally. One worrying aspect of their play is their tendency to leak goals. To have conceded 14 goals in 10 league games is not title winning defending but it is their ability to regularly score at the other end of the pitch that has Spurs in their best position for many a year.

Roy Keane, Jermaine Defoe and Jermaine Jenas have been in prolific form while Aaron Lennon is surely playing the best football of his career. However, disappointingly for Redknapp, Defoe (suspended) and Lennon (ankle) will miss out on this big game. Peter Crouch is available for this game but other Spurs’ absentees are Cudicin, Woodgate, dos Santos, Modric and Ledley King.

For the Gunners, Almunia is available to play, as is Nasri, though he is likely to start on the bench. Fabianski, Rosicky and Walcott will all miss out through injury.

It will be intriguing to find out how both teams will cope with each other’s attacking qualities.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

There have been six meetings between Arsenal and Spurs in the last two seasons. A draw has been the most common result occurring three times, including a 4-4 thriller at The Emirates almost exactly a year ago to the day. The Gunners have won twice, while Spurs have beaten their big rivals just the once. However, Spurs record against Arsenal has been improving over the past few years and with the Spurs squad in as good a shape as it is, another good result could be on the cards.

 

VERDICT

Defoe’s suspension and Lennon’s injury will make this already tough game for Spurs even tougher. However, in Peter Crouch they have a very effective replacement for Defoe. He will cause aeriel problems for Arsenal and it will be interesting to see how the Arsenal back-line cope with him.

With both defences liable to leak goals, and both strike forces liable to grab goals, expect the ball to hit the back of the net more than once in this encounter.

If you search, you could find 1.80 available for both teams to score during the match which is surely a guaranteed outcome.

Arsenal will not walk through this game by any means, but it is very difficult to find value in this match without getting too worked up in the obscure bets. The bookmakers seem to have got their sums right. With home advantage, Arsenal are worthy favourites and should overcome a tough battle against a lively Spurs outfit. To turn a profit in this game, back a home win, and all variations of it.

 

RECOMMENDED

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE                1.80 (available)

ARSENAL TO WIN             1.59 BETFAIR

HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME  Arsenal 2.58 BETFAIR

 

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